India’s GDP Likely Expand by Around 7% in FY24: Analysts


Economists from a variety of organizations predict that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will estimate a 7% growth in the economy for this fiscal year.
The National Statistical Organization (NSO) will release the first advance estimates for 2023–24 on Friday. This is an exercise carried out to calculate ratios like the budget deficit.

On February 1, the interim budget will be presented.

The majority of economists that Business Standard spoke with estimated growth ranges of up to 7% or figures closer to 7%.

When the National Statistical Office announces its first advance GDP estimates on Friday, India is expected to foresee higher economic growth estimates of about 7% for the 2023–24 fiscal year ending in March, compared with earlier government expectations.

Following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) revision of its own growth prediction last month to 7% for the current fiscal year from an earlier estimate of 6.5%, an increase in the estimate of the annual gross domestic product (INGDPY=ECI) is widely predicted.

On Friday at 1200 GMT, the preliminary GDP estimates—which are subject to six changes throughout time—will be made public.

According to Michael Patra, the deputy governor of the RBI, the central bank’s revised growth estimate of 7% for 2023–2024 was a “conservative estimate” given the strong increase seen in data from high-frequency indicators for October and November. This was said last month.

In order to boost economic development in the face of weak consumer spending, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has increased state spending on infrastructure projects. Analysts predict that this will help him win a third term in the national election that is slated for May.

Following 7.8% growth in the previous quarter, the Indian economy expanded 7.6% year over year in the September quarter, quicker than anticipated. This led several private economists to increase their annual projections.

Among other things, S&P Global Ratings predicts that India’s economy will continue to develop at the quickest rate for the next three years, making it the third largest in the world by 2030.

India’s economy, which is currently the fifth largest in the world, is predicted by S&P to grow at a rate of 6.4% in this fiscal year and 7% in the following fiscal year.

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